We’ve seen this movie before. Conservatives, eager to bend the curve on federal outlays, are preparing to use the only leverage they have (their votes) while Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer is talking about “House Republican extremists” causing a government shutdown. In most people’s eyes, Republicans have “lost” every shutdown fight since 1995. So why are conservatives back at it again?

Beyond their preference for a smaller government, conservatives are not alone in seeing runaway spending as a dire threat and will admit that their own party shares the blame. Our political system is structurally ill-equipped to turn off spending once it begins. A new estimate that the deficit will double to $2 trillion this year and Fitch Ratings’ recent downgrade of government credit are the most recent reminders that the problem is real. Efforts to rein in the deficit date back at least to the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings agreement in 1985 and include proposed Constitutional amendments, the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (PAYGO), the Line Item Veto Act of 1996, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, a “sustainable growth rate” for Medicare reimbursements, George W. Bush’s plan to make Social Security sustainable, the 2010 Simpson-Bowles Commission, the 2011 ‘Supercommittee,’ sequestration, the discretionary spending caps in the Budget Control Act of 2011, revenue-producing tax increases, and growth-generating tax cuts.

None of it worked and the government is $32 trillion in debt. Congress rarely makes tough decisions without an action-forcing mechanism and conservatives want to be that mechanism. The House’s two conservative caucuses, the Freedom Caucus and the larger Republican Study Committee have identified similar priorities. Most broadly, they do not want the Covid-era surge in spending to serve as the baseline for future spending. The FY 2023 omnibus, which was called a “monstrosity” by Speaker Kevin McCarthy, passed the House with almost no GOP support in the very last days of the Democrats’ majority. Conservatives want to return to pre-Covid levels or lower. With $115 billion in rescissions, House appropriators have offered budgetary authority at pre-pandemic (FY 2022) levels, but conservatives say this is a gimmick that won’t reduce actual outlays. On this point, the Heritage Foundation says, ‘This represents an unprecedented expansion of rescissions as a budgetary tool to add spending within appropriations caps.’ Many conservatives also see the President’s emergency supplemental request as an end-run around the debt-limit agreement and have a longstanding position that supplementals should be offset.

Though not completely aligned, the RSC and HFC identify seven priorities, some of which are “power of the purse” priorities not directly tied to deficit concerns.

  1. A return to pre-Covid level spending levels (or lower). The Freedom Caucus specifically says $1.471 trillion, which is equal to the FY2022 top line.
  2. No “clean” continuing resolution. They do not want a shutdown and are prepared to vote for a funding patch, but they eequate continuation of FY 2023 sending levels with acceptance of Speaker Pelosi’s “monstrosity.”
  3. No CR to late December that would force the House’s hand before the holidays. Members want to have the spending argument in October (or perhaps next year), when their backs are not up against a wall.
  4. Action on the southern border, such as enactment of H.R. 2.
  5. Action to address ideological ‘weaponization’ of federal law enforcement agencies.
  6. Action to stop ‘woke’ programming at the Department of Defense, including flights for personnel seeking abortion services that are illegal where they live.
  7. No “blank check” for Ukraine. While some legislators want to cut off aid for Ukraine, for many this is an question of prioritization.

Conservatives know the odds of a significant win in a contest with the Senate and the White House, but they want to try. Reining in the scope and cost of government are key reasons most of them ran for Congress. They also believe many of their moderate colleagues are with them on spending levels and that voters are increasingly with them on the border. “President Biden,” we may be hearing soon, “would rather shut down the government than control the border.”

Gabriel Neville is a senior advisor at Covington & Burling LLP. He was a congressional staffer from 1997 to 2015.

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Photo of Gabe Neville Gabe Neville

Gabe Neville, a non-lawyer, helps clients navigate the complexities of federal policymaking and proactively engage the legislative and executive branches of government. Using an intimate knowledge of the government gained over thirty years in politics, Gabe helps clients understand policymakers, conservative politics, and…

Gabe Neville, a non-lawyer, helps clients navigate the complexities of federal policymaking and proactively engage the legislative and executive branches of government. Using an intimate knowledge of the government gained over thirty years in politics, Gabe helps clients understand policymakers, conservative politics, and the legislative and regulatory tools available to advance their agendas. He also advises on responding to congressional inquiries and invitations to testify.

Gabe supports clients in sectors as varied as mining, franchising, technology, and life sciences and has substantial experience advising on appropriations, critical minerals, energy, food regulation, health, human rights, intellectual property, labor, social media content moderation, telecommunications, tax, and international trade.

He joined Covington after nearly two decades as a senior congressional staffer and chief of staff to a senior Republican member of the House Energy & Commerce Committee. He previously worked as a Pennsylvania state legislative staffer, Republican campaign professional, and journalist.

Gabe has deep relationships in Republican politics and the conservative movement. As a congressional staffer he frequently chaired meetings of the Values Action Team (VAT) and attended weekly meetings of the Republican Study Committee (RSC). Gabe continues to work with these and other center-right organizations that constitute the base of the Republican Party and frequently drive its priorities.

Gabe was chief of staff to the chairman of the Energy & Commerce Health Subcommittee, which oversees a wide range of government health programs and issues, including public health; hospital construction; mental health and research; biomedical programs and health protection in general, including public and private health insurance; food and drugs; and drug abuse. The subcommittee has jurisdiction over federal agencies responsible for public health programs, regulation, and administration. They include the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and others.

At Covington, Gabe has prepared dozens of corporate executives, nonprofit leaders, academics, and nominees for congressional committee hearings. These range from routine policy hearings to high-stakes, high-profile congressional investigations.

He is the author of The Last Men Standing: The 8th Virginia Regiment in the American Revolution and many deeply researched articles on the Revolutionary War and the Founding Era.

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