Economic Issues

Barely noticed in the firehose stream of presidential activity since the inauguration was a brief Oval Office mention of cutting a deal with Ukraine for access to its critical minerals. Securing steady access to uranium, the rare earth elements, and other critical minerals is a natural priority for an America First agenda, so President Trump’s February 3 statement is unlikely to be his last. Changes to the tax code, permitting reform, regulatory incentives, and partnerships with allies as well as troubled nations are among the actions to watch for.

A Bipartisan Issue

Leaders of both parties agree that action is needed. “Whether it’s critical minerals with China … or uranium from Russia, we can’t be dependent on them,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Bergum asserted in his confirmation hearing. “We’ve got the resources here. We need to develop them.” Virginia Senator Mark Warner (D, VA) recently charged, “China dominates the critical mineral industry and is actively working to ensure that the U.S. does not catch up.” He urged, “The U.S. must, alongside allies, take meaningful steps to protect and expand our production and procurement of these critical minerals.” President Biden’s State Department was even more blunt, asserting that China is intentionally oversupplying lithium to “lower the price until competition disappears.”

Several recent developments have increased U.S. policymakers’ concerns about future supplies of critical minerals. New technologies, including artificial intelligence, promise to dramatically boost demand. China, meanwhile, is using new export control laws to curtail exports to the United States. A resurgent war in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), ostensibly over tribal rivalries, is actually a fight over the country’s rich mineral resources. These include gold and diamonds, but also coltan, an ore from which tantalum is extracted. Tantalum is extremely valuable for its use in the capacitors found in smartphones, laptops, and medical equipment.

The number of minerals in question (51), the usual number of steps in the production chain (4), and the variety of international agreements, public laws, private initiatives, and emerging technologies add up to a dizzyingly complex set of issues. Nevertheless, the bipartisan alignment evident in the above statements signals that impacted industries should watch closely for fast-moving legislative and regulatory developments.

Market Overview

Critical minerals are essential for a long list of industrial and defense-related needs. Attention is often focused on the 17 ‘rare earth elements,’ (REEs) but the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a broader list of 50 mineral commodities that are critical to the nation’s economy and national security. Uranium is excluded by a statutory definition but is often tracked in parallel. Together, these 51 elements are used for a far wider array of products than is often recognized. The 17 REEs alone are also needed for oil refining, guided missiles, radar arrays, MRI machines, computer chips, hydrogen electrolysis, lasers, aluminum manufacturing, cameras, jet engines, satellite manufacturing, and a long list of other advanced applications.Continue Reading What President Trump Might Do on Critical Minerals

Economic Turmoil in the UK

The rate on the 10-year benchmark UK government bond has reached levels last seen in 2008. The rate on the 30-year bond stands at a 27-year high. Today, the Government sold £1 billion of bonds at the most expensive terms since 2004 – albeit with apparently good market demand. Sterling has suffered its worst trading losses for over two years. UK debt has risen to nearly 100% of GDP.  Inflation is proving to be sticky (recent OECD data showed the UK with the G7 highest inflation in November) – although today’s inflation figures show a small drop to 2.5%. 

Why is this happening?

International

It would be unfair to heap all the blame at the UK Government’s door.  Many of the factors fuelling the current market turbulence are outside the UK’s control.  The looming twin threats of President Trump’s tariffs and his tight immigration policy, together with rising oil prices (up nearly 10% in the first two weeks of 2025) have stoked global inflationary pressures, leading the world’s most powerful central banks to hold back on cutting interest rates and raising borrowing costs around the world. Markets appear to be pricing in higher US budget deficits and national debt (caused by Trump’s tax-cutting plans) adding to the supply of US Treasury bonds with resulting higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar.  All of which impacts the UK by pushing up  bond UK rates, increasing the deficit and hitting growth. 

Domestic

However, although bond rates are increasing across the globe (France, Spain and Germany have all seen similar increases), the UK does appear to be particularly vulnerable to this current bout of global economic uncertainty. A combination of uniquely-domestic factors (including the resilience of wage growth, service sector prices, and concerns about the inflationary impact of Labour’s tax and spend measures announced in the October Budget) has depressed consumer and business confidence and led to anaemic economic growth.Continue Reading The Political ramifications of the UK’s economic travails

On February 22, 2023, the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) and the Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) filed rule proposals[1] to adopt new listing standards implementing Rule 10D-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. That rule, which the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) adopted in October 2022, requires national securities exchanges to implement standards to require listed companies to adopt and publicly file so-called “clawback” policies to recover erroneously awarded incentive-based compensation following accounting restatements. Rule 10D-1, which was first proposed in 2015 and re-opened for comment twice, implements Section 954 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The proposed listing standards are subject to a 21-day comment period once published in the Federal Register before the SEC can approve them, and must, in any event, become effective by November 28, 2023. Listed companies will be required to adopt clawback policies that comply with the new standards within 60 days of the effective date of the applicable listing standards (the “Adoption Deadline”).

The listing standards proposed by both NYSE and Nasdaq are materially consistent with Rule 10D-1 and its adopting release. Among other things, both proposed listing standards provide for the commencement of delisting proceedings for listed companies that fail to either adopt a compliant clawback policy or comply with such policy after a clawback obligation arises. These delisting provisions are discussed below, and, for an in-depth discussion of Rule 10D-1’s requirements, please refer to our previous alert.

NYSE – Delisting for Noncompliance

Failure to Adopt a Policy: As proposed, a company listed on NYSE that fails to adopt a compliant clawback policy by the Adoption Deadline will have five days to notify NYSE, after which the exchange will send a written delinquency notification to the company. Upon receipt of this notification, the company would have five days to contact NYSE to discuss the delinquency and to issue a press release disclosing the company’s delinquency, the reason for the delinquency and, if known, the anticipated date on which a clawback policy will be adopted. If the company fails to issue such a press release in time, NYSE will issue a press release stating that the company has received a delinquency notice.Continue Reading NYSE and Nasdaq Propose Clawback Listing Standards

Before the new administration takes office, we may well see further US actions on China during the transition that will be hard to reverse. The Trump Administration has invested great effort to reorient US China policy and may try to lock in its approach that sees the Chinese Communist Party…
Continue Reading US-China Economic Relations in a Biden Administration

Starting with COVID-19 relief, both former Vice President Biden and President Trump have embraced the need for another COVID-19 economic stimulus package.

A Biden administration would likely pursue “high-multiplier” policies that funnel money to people and businesses that need it and are likely to spend it, thereby helping funds circulate…
Continue Reading A Crystal Ball On Economic Stimulus