It was a Republican President who inaugurated America’s openness to China 50 years ago, but it is Republicans in Congress who seem poised to begin closing the door. With the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the House and possibly the Senate in November, American businesses should prepare for a raft of anti-China measures that are likely to pass the House in the new Congress.

House Republican Leadership intends to include China decoupling legislation among its top 10 priorities in 2023. Unlike many foreign policy issues on which voters express little interest, this new decoupling fervor is being driven by Republicans’ most enthusiastic voters.

In one recent unpublished poll, almost half of Republican voters agreed that the U.S. government should prohibit American companies from doing business in China, and fewer than one-third disagreed. Three times as many Republican voters strongly agreed with this view than strongly disagreed, demonstrating that voter intensity for decoupling is high.

In a time of heightened partisanship leading into another divisive election, 26 Republican Senators sent a letter supporting Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan – despite the fact that Pelosi is anathema to Republican voters. The subtext to the letter was that Republicans’ eagerness for a muscular confrontation with China trumps even election-year partisanship in some circumstances.

The recently passed CHIPS-Plus legislation, which President Biden will sign into law today, was all about China, though it is not mentioned in the bill’s title. Bipartisan fears that China might invade Taiwan and capture Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation’s (TSMC) critical advanced chip manufacturing facility emboldened 16 Senate Republicans and 24 House Republicans to set aside their concerns about instituting industrial policy and vote for the bill. Notably, the bill included “guardrails” for funding recipients that will curtail some future expansion by US and allied chipmakers in China.

In 2020, after a lengthy project, the House Republicans issued a 141-page China Task Force Report full of aggressive proposals to decouple American business from China. The conservative House Republican Study Committee followed up with its own more aggressive legislative proposal (the “Countering Communist China Act”) that is likely to closely mirror the proposal that House Republicans will probably list among their top legislative bills in the 118th Congress.

But will such legislation pass a closely divided Senate (regardless of which Party is in control) and get signed by President Biden? Unlikely, but provisions of the bill may find a home in the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act. And going into a presidential election, the Biden Administration will feel the pressure to issue Executive Orders and take other administrative actions to address growing anti-China sentiment. It’s likely that a Republican House will use hearings, letters, and investigations to question companies that are perceived to be genuflecting to China. With Republicans increasingly moving away from the historically close relationship with corporate America, a perceived coziness with China will be one more strike against business. Already, some American tech companies are voluntarily decoupling from the lucrative Chinese market, and heightened congressional oversight may accelerate that exodus.

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Photo of Bill Wichterman Bill Wichterman

Bill Wichterman is a non-lawyer Senior Advisor in Covington’s Public Policy practice.

Prior to joining Covington, Bill served as Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and as the President’s personal liaison to the conservative movement.  Before serving in the White House, he held…

Bill Wichterman is a non-lawyer Senior Advisor in Covington’s Public Policy practice.

Prior to joining Covington, Bill served as Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and as the President’s personal liaison to the conservative movement.  Before serving in the White House, he held a number of senior staff-level positions on Capitol Hill, including as Policy Advisor to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, and Chief of Staff to Congressman Joe Pitts and Congressman Bill Baker.

Bill also has inside experience in congressional and presidential campaigns, including every presidential campaign from 2000 to 2016, usually as a senior advisor. He remains active in national Republican politics.

Bill has more than 35 years of experience in policy-making and is skilled at developing and implementing comprehensive strategies—including the media, opinion-makers, and interest groups—to accomplish the policy goals of his clients. He calls upon his nearly two decades of government service and extensive knowledge of the policy-making and political structures in Washington to counsel Fortune 500 clients in various industries on a wide range of matters related to semiconductor technology, patent policy, trade controls, CFIUS, foreign relations, antitrust, and cybersecurity, among others.

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Gabe Neville, a non-lawyer, helps Covington’s clients navigate the complexities of federal policymaking.

Gabe helps clients in various sectors understand individual policymakers and the legislative and regulatory tools they can use to advance their agendas. Using an intimate knowledge of the government gained…

Gabe Neville, a non-lawyer, helps Covington’s clients navigate the complexities of federal policymaking.

Gabe helps clients in various sectors understand individual policymakers and the legislative and regulatory tools they can use to advance their agendas. Using an intimate knowledge of the government gained over a nearly twenty-year period as a Congressional staffer, he helps clients proactively engage the legislative and executive branches of government. He also advises clients on responding to congressional inquiries and invitations to testify.

Gabe joined Covington after nearly two decades as a senior congressional staffer, most recently serving as chief of staff for Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Pitts (R, PA-16). He previously worked for the Pennsylvania state legislature, and managed several successful political campaigns. After managing Congressman Pitts’ first campaign for Congress, he served the congressman as press secretary and then as chief of staff. In that role, he advised the congressman on a wide range of issues, with special attention to the range of health, energy, and telecommunications issues that come before the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Other issues Gabe engaged in range from agriculture to human rights.

As chief of staff to a leading conservative, Gabe also developed deep relationships within the conservative movement. He frequently chaired meetings of the Values Action Team (VAT) and attended meetings of the Republican Study Committee (RSC). Gabe continues to work with these and other right-of-center organizations in Congress, including the House Freedom Caucus.

While on Capitol Hill, Gabe worked closely with the members and staff of the Health Subcommittee while Congressman Pitts chaired that panel. The subcommittee oversees a wide range of government health programs and issues, including public health; hospital construction; mental health and research; biomedical programs and health protection in general, including public and private health insurance; food and drugs; and drug abuse. The subcommittee has jurisdiction over federal agencies responsible for public health programs, regulation, and administration. They include the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and others.

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