On March 30, the Lula administration officially presented its proposed new fiscal policy framework for Brazil.
Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad and Minister of Planning and Budget Simone Tebet presented the framework to the press after several rounds of negotiation within the administration and with the congressional leadership, in particular the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate.
Key takeaways:
- The new framework tries to strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and social responsibility, combining fiscal adjustment measures with the preservation of budget for key social policies, in particular the conditional cash transfer to the poor, minimum wage, healthcare and income tax exemption for workers and the middle class.
- The new framework’s ‘fiscal anchor’ is based on an annual primary budget surplus target (excluding debt interest payment), from -0.5% of GDP in 2023 to 1.0% of GDP in 2026, growing in 0.5 pp increments per year.
- The annual primary budget surplus target will be pursued within a tolerance range between +0.25% and -0.25% of GDP of that year’s target (e.g., if the target for the year is 0.5%, the range will be from 0.25% to 0.75%). This tolerance range mechanism mirrors the existing inflation target mechanism used by the Central Bank.
- In addition to the target, growth in spending will be pegged to revenue increase at 70% (e.g., if revenue increases BRL 10 billion, spending can increase only up to BRL 7 billion). If the annual primary budget surplus target is not achieved, the spending growth peg is reduced to 50% to slow down further spending.
Continue Reading Brazil’s Lula Administration Presents New Fiscal Framework